Analysts Miss the Mark on Predicting Oil ... Again

I saw this post on Seeking Alpha, and thought these must be the same analysts that are predicting that more drilling won't affect oil prices.

I also find it interesting that ever since the talk of lifting the ban on offshore drilling has started, the price of oil has declined dramatically. After all, 'experts' predict that it would take at least 5 years for any new oil from offshore drilling to start flowing. I guess these 'experts' don't realize that you can buy a futures contract TODAY, for oil in 5 years from now, so just the prospect of future drilling affects futures contracts now.

Of course, these experts also probably don't know about efficient market theory; which asserts that "prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, [or oil], already reflect all known information". Hence, if the rational expectation is that oil supply will increase in 5 years, it will affect prices today. In this case, the primary reason is that long-term supply constraints help protect speculators from a long-term correction; take away that protection, and speculators can only bet on short term supply & demand imbalances; a much riskier proposition.